Democratic Presidential Primary 2016: Paul leads GOP primary, but Christie best bet against Clinton

July 25, 2013

Paul leads GOP primary, but Christie best bet against Clinton

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of voters across America finds that the Republican primary race has become a virtual dead heat between five or six candidates. Rand Paul sits ahead of the field at 16%, his highest numbers since April, and the first time he has held sole possession of first place. Behind him are Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Paul Ryan, all at 13%. This is a slight drop for Bush and Christie, who last month had both led with 15%. Just after that is Ted Cruz with 12%, a huge increase from 7% in May. Rounding out the frontrunners is Marco Rubio, who continues to slide in the polls, pulling in 10%. This is less than half of the 21% of the vote he received back in April.

“The trend in the Republican primary field is pretty clear,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are up and Marco Rubio is down.”

In the general election, Hillary Clinton still leads her competitors, though the number of close races is growing. Chris Christie was once again within the margin of error in his head-to-head matchup, down 43% to 42%. So did Paul Ryan, who trails Clinton 46% to 44%, and Jeb Bush, who trails 44% to 41%. All three of the Republican candidates were able to pull in at least 10% of Democrats and lead by at least 5% with independents. Rand Paul is doing considerably worse, down 47% to 39%, due to the fact that he would only have the guaranteed support of 78% of his own party. Marco Rubio has rebounded considerably against Hillary, down 45% to 40%, compared to an 11% deficit last month.   Against Joe Biden, the Republicans are doing much better, leading or tying in every hypothetical matchup. Only Christie and Bush, who lead Biden by 6% and 4% respectively, have leads outside of the margin of error. Paul Ryan leads by 3%, and Rubio and Paul both tie with Biden. With the exception of Christie, whose lead remains unchanged, these are all improvements over past performances.

Finally, in the Democratic primaries much remains the same as before. Hillary’s lead is just as massive as in months prior, taking in 52% to Biden’s 12%, and Biden has a lead of 21% over the field if she doesn’t run.

PPP surveyed 800 registered voters, as well as 500 Republican and 418 Democratic primary voters, between July 19-21, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 3.5% for the general election, +/-4.3% for the Republican, and +/-4.7% for the Democratic primary. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Republican Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie,
Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez,
Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like to see as
the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
Jeb Bush......................................................... 13%
Chris Christie .................................................. 13%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 12%
Bobby Jindal ................................................... 4%
Susana Martinez............................................. 2%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 16%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 10%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 13%
Rick Santorum................................................ 4%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 13%

Q2 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 3%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 5%
Moderate......................................................... 17%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 40%
Very conservative ........................................... 35%

Q3 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 47%
Man................................................................. 53%

Q4 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 30%
46 to 65........................................................... 45%
Older than 65.................................................. 25%

Democratic Primary Toplines

Q1 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten
Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden........................................................ 12%
Cory Booker.................................................... 3%
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 52%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 2%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 5%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 1%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 2%
Mark Warner ................................................... 1%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 6%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 17%

Q2 Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker,
Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin
O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer,
Mark Warner, and Elizabeth Warren, who
would you most like to see as the Democratic
candidate for President in 2016?
Joe Biden........................................................ 34%
Cory Booker.................................................... 4%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 10%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 3%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 3%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 2%
Mark Warner ................................................... 2%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 13%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 29%

Q3 If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for
President in 2016, who would you most like to
see as the Democratic nominee?
Cory Booker.................................................... 8%
Andrew Cuomo ............................................... 11%
Kirsten Gillibrand ............................................ 5%
Martin O'Malley............................................... 2%
Brian Schweitzer ............................................. 4%
Mark Warner ................................................... 3%
Elizabeth Warren ............................................ 20%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 47%

Q4 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 17%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 35%
Moderate......................................................... 34%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 9%
Very conservative ........................................... 4%

Q5 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 55%
Man................................................................. 45%

Q6 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 12%
White .............................................................. 70%
African-American ............................................ 12%
Other............................................................... 6%

Q7 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to
65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.
18 to 45........................................................... 39%
46 to 65........................................................... 41%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

General Election Toplines

Q1 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 44%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 41%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q2 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%
Chris Christie .................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q3 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 47%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican
Marco Rubio, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 45%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 44%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden........................................................ 41%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden........................................................ 39%
Chris Christie .................................................. 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden........................................................ 43%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 43%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Marco
Rubio, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden........................................................ 42%
Marco Rubio ................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q10 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Paul
Ryan, who would you vote for?
Joe Biden........................................................ 43%
Paul Ryan ....................................................... 46%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q11 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 46%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 8%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 9%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 21%
Moderate......................................................... 27%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 26%
Very conservative ........................................... 17%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 48%
Man................................................................. 52%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 41%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.......................................... 26%

Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4.
Hispanic.......................................................... 10%
White .............................................................. 73%
African-American ............................................ 11%
Other............................................................... 6%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 18%
30 to 45........................................................... 27%
46 to 65........................................................... 35%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%

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