Hillary Clinton's phantom presence in the Democratic presidential-nomination stakes—neither in nor out—is freezing the rest of the field, creating formidable obstacles for other candidates needing to raise money and set up an organization.
When advisers to a fundraising group backing a prospective 2016 Clinton bid came calling in late January, hedge-fund manager and political heavyweight Orin Kramer said he met them in his New York office and agreed to write a check. When another potential candidate, Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, tried to reach him, Mr. Kramer said he didn't take the call.
"She's Gladys Knight and all the rest of them are the Pips," said Robert Zimmerman, a longtime Democratic donor, comparing Mrs. Clinton with potential opponents from both parties.
Possible 2016 candidates are in the crucial early stages of raising money, but they won't likely set up formal campaign infrastructures until after this year's midterm elections.
Even though she isn't officially running, Mrs. Clinton retains huge influence with the Democratic Party's fundraising and get-out-the-vote machinery. A super PAC called "Ready for Hillary" is recruiting Clinton campaign volunteers in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states. A group called Priorities USA Action is prepared to raise millions for her campaign, having made early overtures to donors such as Mr. Kramer.
That organizational advantage coupled with her renown as a former first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state have prevented other prospective Democrats from getting a toehold in the race. One Democratic strategist describes a political environment "frozen" in anticipation of a possible Clinton bid.
"She, as much as anyone, knows that running for president is a very personal and weighty decision that people need to make on their own timeline, based on whatever factors they want to take into account," Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill said in a recent interview.
For any candidate with a surname other than Clinton, getting an early start is vital because few have the luxury of being able to wait until the last minute, given the complexities and expense of running campaigns.
Vice President Joe Biden is considering a run, but he seems under no illusion about what he is up against. Last year, when he met with a Democratic fundraiser and talked about his possible 2016 ambitions, Mr. Biden made a modest request given his status as a sitting vice president: Please keep your powder dry, the fundraiser recalled him asking.
Friends of Mr. Biden's want to start organizing on his behalf in New Hampshire. But as of early April, they hadn't asked for a green light from his office. Daniel Eaton, a Democratic New Hampshire state representative, said he planned to ask Mr. Biden's office for permission to begin mobilizing supporters and donors. "I don't think the American people appreciate a party anointing anyone," Mr. Eaton said. "They want it earned."
Polls show Mrs. Clinton lapping the field of potential Democratic rivals, raising the possibility that she could be a rare candidate who takes the nomination without a fight—if she chooses to run.
Mr. Kramer, who worked in the Carter administration and is one of the financial sector's elite Democratic fundraisers, said he would like the party to avoid the battles of past races. "It's clearly preferable to be able to save the resources and not be brutalized in the primary process and to have the entire period to lay out a strategy," he said.
But other Democrats believe a healthy debate in the primaries toughens up the eventual nominee. Former Iowa Lt. Gov. Sally Pederson, who counts herself a Clinton supporter, said that "part of her problem is that she's such a celebrity and has so many people and so much media, it's hard for her to do the grass roots."
The super PAC Ready for Hillary raised nearly $4 million in 2013 and ended the year with about $749,000 on hand, federal election records show. The group spent about $1.2 million last year on online advertising and $870,000 on salaries and consulting fees. That included $90,000 paid to 270 Strategies, a company whose founding partners include Jeremy Bird and Mitch Stewart, veterans of both of President Barack Obama's winning presidential campaigns.
The pair's involvement illustrates another reality of the 2016 election that favors Mrs. Clinton: The party's Obama and Clinton factions, who fought so bitterly for the 2008 nomination, appear to be coalescing behind her potential candidacy.
On the ground, no other candidate has been able to establish an effort that comes close to the shadow Clinton campaign.
Brian Schweitzer, a former Democratic governor of Montana, is thinking about running and is talking with potential supporters. Mr. Schweitzer said he has had conversations with people across the country and with his "kitchen cabinet" of advisers. He gave a speech to a liberal group in Iowa four months ago.
Mr. O'Malley has appeared in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. He has talked to Mrs. Clinton about his interest in the race, according to people who have spoken to him, and told her he would meet with party activists. He also made the case to her that it is good to have a larger number of voices making the party's argument.
One Democratic fundraiser who met Mr. O'Malley said he came away with the impression that he was trying to "plant the flag" in the event Mrs. Clinton chooses not to run. The fundraiser is backing Mrs. Clinton.
Last month, Mr. O'Malley flew to California to speak to the state Democratic Party and meet with labor leaders, elected officials and Obama fundraisers—the sorts of people who can be helpful in a primary fight. Among them was Tom Steyer, an environmentalist and political donor who, in a statement, commended Mr. O'Malley's efforts to combat climate change.
Mr. Steyer has ties to Mrs. Clinton, too. Seven months ago, he was named an adviser to help the Clinton family's charitable foundation with an early-childhood development project called "Too Small to Fail."
Mr. O'Malley also stopped by to see Douglas Goldman, an Obama fundraiser in San Francisco and software executive. Dr. Goldman said he was impressed with the governor, but he already has donated to Ready for Hillary.
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